Donald Trump’s proposed hardline immigration policies, including a mass deportation plan, could have far-reaching economic consequences, particularly for sectors like agriculture, construction, and hospitality, which heavily depend on immigrant labor. Analysts warn that while these measures are aimed at addressing illegal immigration, they could inadvertently harm economic growth and exacerbate labor shortages.
Economic Dependence on Immigrants
The U.S. has around 11 million unauthorized immigrants, according to government estimates, with 8.3 million participating in the labor force—roughly 5% of the overall workforce. Many of these individuals work in jobs that have struggled to attract American workers, such as roofing, plastering, farming, and housekeeping. A report by the American Immigration Council (AIC) found that deporting undocumented workers would eliminate 30% of plasterers, roofers, and painters, and up to one-quarter of housekeeping staff.
GDP and Inflation Risks
Research from organizations like the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and Peterson Institute for International Economics suggests significant economic fallout from mass deportations. A moderate scenario predicts GDP growth could decline by 0.4 percentage points by 2025, driven by reduced labor output and consumer spending. In an extreme scenario involving the expulsion of all 8.3 million unauthorized workers, GDP growth could drop by 7.4% by 2028, effectively stalling economic progress.
Moreover, labor shortages would push wages higher as businesses compete for a smaller pool of workers, leading to inflationary pressures. Some sectors, like agriculture and construction, could see dramatic price hikes, although analysts believe the aggregate impact on inflation would remain modest.
Challenges to Implementation
Despite Trump’s campaign rhetoric, logistical, legal, and financial obstacles are likely to limit the scale of mass deportations. During Trump’s first term, similar proposals faced significant pushback, and analysts expect a repeat of this trend. Oxford Economics forecasts that net migration will decrease to around 750,000 per year, moderately below pre-pandemic levels.
While stricter immigration policies may slow net migration, the feasibility of executing mass deportations remains doubtful. According to economists at Goldman Sachs, the political and operational barriers make such proposals unlikely to materialize fully.
In summary, while Trump’s deportation plan appeals to his base, its economic drawbacks—including labor shortages, slower growth, and inflationary risks—pose significant challenges to its implementation and broader U.S. economic stability.
